After data and technology company Gracenote revealed its medal predictions for the 2020 Games, H&H’s expert sport journalists give their views
Britain could be coming home from the Tokyo Olympics with three equestrian gold medals, if Gracenote’s predictions prove correct.
The data and technology company’s head of sports analysis Simon Grieve told H&H the company used results from and since the last Games to make its forecast, such as World Championships, World Cups and grands prix, and takes into account when the results were achieved.
Gracenote’s forecast for this year’s Games includes individual golds for eventer Ros Canter and Allstar B, and showjumper Ben Maher and Explosion W. It also predicts team eventing gold.
The analysis puts Australian Hazel Shannon and Willingapark Clifford in eventing silver medal position and Ireland’s Padraig McCarthy on Mr Chunky in bronze, with Germany and France taking team silver and bronze respectively.
H&H eventing editor Pippa Roome said: “I’m delighted to see double gold for Britain on these predictions and, while it’ll be a tough battle, that’s definitely not unrealistic.
“I’m not so sure I would expect Hazel and Willingapark Clifford to take individual silver. They don’t have a lot of exposure outside Australia and I think will struggle to be competitive in the high-quality field we’ll see in Tokyo.”
European champions Martin Fuchs and Clooney 51 are predicted to take individual jumping silver and Germany’s Daniel Deusser on Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z bronze, with Ireland, Belgium and Sweden taking team honours in that order.
H&H showjumping editor Jennifer Donald said: “It certainly seems feasible the individual medal race could come down to a battle between Ben and world number one Martin, as it was at the 2019 Europeans when Ben lost out on the gold. I’d be surprised to see an all-European podium in the team competition, however, with so many emerging nations, as well as powerhouses such as world champions US, bidding for glory.”
The dressage predictions look less positive for Britain. Germany is forecast to win all three individual medals; World Champion Isabell Werth gold on Weihegold OLD, Helen Langehanenberg on Damsey FRH silver and Dorothee Schneider on Sammy Davis Jr bronze. The US and Sweden are predicted to take team silver and bronze respectively.
H&H dressage editor Polly Bryan said, while it is hard to predict medals, and hard to bet against Isabell winning gold, she would expect her to ride Bella Rose in Tokyo, having campaigned Weihegold on the indoor World Cup circuit.
“But I expect Britain’s Charlotte Dujardin, Denmark’s Cathrine Dufour and Sweden’s Patrick Kittel to be well in the mix, as well as the remaining the German riders,” she said. “Germany is my pick for another team gold, but the US, Britain, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands are all serious contenders for silver and bronze.”
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