British event riders are predicted to take at least two individual medals at the Tokyo Games, although Michael Jung is predicted to win gold.
According to data analysis company Equiratings’s SAP Eventing Prediction Centre, Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class have a 15% chance of taking individual gold, followed by Laura Collett and London 52, and Tom McEwen and Toledo De Kerser, both on 13%. But the Brits will need to fight off German rider and Michael Jung, who has taken individual eventing gold at the last two Olympics, on Fischerchipmunk FRH who have been predicted as having a 26% chance of winning.
The Equirating’s Eventing Prediction Centre is a statistical model using SAP predictive technology to forecast the results of major eventing competitions before and during the event. The model simulates events 10,000 times pre-competition and after each phase and updates its projected leaderboard and the estimated probability of victory, podium or top-10 finish for each combination, factoring in past performance at events and in the different phases.
The predictions suggest Michael Jung has a 48% chance of a top-three placing, Oliver 35%, Tom 34%, and Laura 29%. Michael has a 78% chance of a top-10 placing, while Tom has a 69%, Oliver 66%, and Laura 58%.
Other predictions state that US rider Phillip Dutton and Z has a five percent chance of taking individual gold, but a 60% chance of a top-10 finish. Kiwis Tim and Jonelle Price have a 29% and 36% chance of a top-10 with Vitali and Grovine De Reve respectively, and only a one percent chance of taking the gold medal.
“The prediction centre is a complex model, which takes into account thousands of data points and looks at every single mark of every horse for many years, as well as the level of competition,” he said.
Horse & Hound Newsletter
Never miss out on the latest happenings in the equestrian world
““The model also has a weighting towards the more recent runs, because doing a 21 dressage in your last run is more important than doing it 10 runs ago. It’s basic when you say it out loud but that’s what our scientists spend their time doing, they work out the importance of a weighting, and things like how many of these horses have done a five-star test before – those are the things we can control.”
Diarmuid added that the model cannot factor in things such as humidity, and the fact the competition is the Olympics.
“It’s going to have a lot of atmosphere, but also possibly not going to have any with no fans so there’s going to be huge nerves I’m sure from the riders, but maybe the horses will think it’s a two-star arena and no one’s watching them!” he said.
Equiratings will soon release its team predictions, and Diarmuid said teams having only three counting scores means fans can expect a different Games to any other.
“There’s no drop score now and every single mistake will count. I think it will be the best Olympics ever in terms of excitement even though none of us are there and we’re going to go on a massive rollercoaster,” he said.
Horse & Hound magazine, out every Thursday, is packed with all the latest news and reports, as well as interviews, specials, nostalgia, vet and training advice. Find how you can enjoy the magazine delivered to your door every week, plus options to upgrade to access our H&H Plus online service which brings you breaking news as it happens as well as other benefits.
Stay in touch with all the news in the run-up to and throughout the major shows and events during 2026 and beyond with a Horse & Hound subscription. Subscribe today for all you need to know ahead of these major events, plus online reports on the action as it happens from our expert team of reporters and in-depth analysis in our special commemorative magazines. Have a subscription already? Set up your unlimited website access now
Since joining H&H in 2018, Becky has covered a broad range of equestrian news including welfare matters, veterinary studies, FEI Tribunal hearings and road safety campaigns. She has also interviewed top riders including Scott Brash, John Whitaker and Ian Stark, to name just a few. Becky’s reporting has taken her to Canada for Spruce Meadows and France for Pau five-star, as well as the Royal Highland and Blair Castle International Horse Trials closer to home. She was also a key part of the remote reporting team for the Tokyo Olympics and the Europeans.
