Who will win Badminton Horse Trials? Analysts crunch the numbers for an ‘exceptionally strong field’

Can the maths tell us who is going to win Badminton Horse Trials 2022, presented by Mars Equestrian? Data analytics company EquiRatings have crunched the numbers and predicted Laura Collett and London 52 as the pre-event favourites.

The EquiRatings prediction centre has simulated the competition 10,000 times and pulled Laura Collett and her Tokyo Olympic team gold medal winner as the most likely on paper to lift the new Badminton trophy with a 15% win chance.

But with horses, ever predictable in their unpredictability, maths is only ever part of the full equation.

That same statistic flipped gives other competitors an 85% chance of victory.

Badminton final scores

“It is a wide open field,” says Nicole Brown, of EquiRatings. “To put that into context, last week in Kentucky, Michael Jung and FischerChipmunk FRH went into the competition with nearly a 40% win chance. So just putting that into context, we have two very different five-star fields.

“Laura Collett is the favourite on paper, but it is wide open.

“You’re looking at the likes of Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class, he has a 100% cross-country clear rate at five-star with seven clears from seven runs. The horse has been to five star seven times and has never been out of the top five. That’s absolutely extraordinary. And you’ve got some really good combinations from other countries as well.”

The British Tokyo team fill the top three places in EquiRatings’ win predictions. Oliver and Ballaghmor Class start with a 12% chance of victory, according to EquiRatings’ calculations, and Tom McEwen and Toledo De Kerser allocated a 9% win chance.

EquiRatings’ analysis puts Badminton as the most competitive gathering of five-star horses on record, from 2015 to 2022. Those statistics also include Olympic Games and World Championships.

This year’s field include the seven different British riders who won a gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics and European Championships in 2021, six of whom are here on their gold medal-winning horses.

Looking at cross-country clear rates, the global average is one in two horses jump clear across country at five-star level. But this year’s Badminton start list features two on the elite list of horses who have had more than five runs at five star and a 100% clear rate.

One of those is Ballagmor Class, the other is the 2018 winner Classic Moet, who has an astonishing 10 five-star cross-country jumping clears and will go for number 11 on Saturday with rider Jonelle Price for New Zealand.

“It is an exceptionally strong field and whoever wins here this weekend will have won a proper five-star,” adds Nicole.

You might also be interested in:

‘It smacks you in the face that you’re at a five-star’: riders’ reactions to the Badminton cross-country course

What leader Tom McEwen said about the dressage marking, plus other stories you need to read from Badminton today

‘He was phenomenal’: Tom McEwen takes an early lead at Badminton with personal best dressage score

Kitty King puts in bold bid for the Badminton title with ‘brilliant’ dressage test

Subscribe to Horse & Hound magazine today – and enjoy unlimited website access all year round

Horse & Hound magazine, out every Thursday, is packed with all the latest news and reports, as well as interviews, specials, nostalgia, vet and training advice. Find how you can enjoy the magazine delivered to your door every week, plus options to upgrade your subscription to access our online service that brings you breaking news and reports as well as other benefits. 

Stay in touch with all the news in the run-up to and throughout the major shows and events during 2026 and beyond with a Horse & Hound subscription. Subscribe today for all you need to know ahead of these major events, plus online reports on the action as it happens from our expert team of reporters and in-depth analysis in our special commemorative magazines. Have a subscription already? Set up your unlimited website access now