Factors associated with successful cross-country completion have been identified in a new study, and could have implications for minimum eligibility requirements (MERs).
Researchers behind three of the largest eventing safety studies have published a paper looking at the factors associated with the safe completion of FEI cross-country courses. The study, published last week in the Equine Veterinary Journal, aimed to understand which factors contribute to increased or reduced odds of a horse and rider combination jumping clear in the cross-country phase, by analysing 107,348 horse starts at FEI competitions between 2008 and 2018.
The work involved two research models; the first looked at horse starts from their first FEI competition to the end of the study period, the second used horse starts from those who were stepping up a level.
Of the 107,348 cross-country starts, 76,883 (71.6%) were clear rounds. From the data the researchers identified 16 factors – 14 in the stepping-up model – “significantly associated with the odds of running clear”. These included that each increase in event level compared to a one-star level was associated with a reduction in the likelihood of a combination jumping clear, men were at increased odds of going clear than women, and younger riders were more likely to go clear than those aged 51 or over. Riders whose previous FEI competition was within the previous seven days, horses who went clear in their previous three starts and combinations who had a better performance in the dressage phase were also associated with being more likely to go clear. Dressage scores in eventing have been highlighted previously by the research team, who identified that combinations that scored a higher number of penalties in dressage were more likely to have a horse fall than those who scored lower (news, 30 March).
Lead author Euan Bennet of the University of Glasgow told H&H there is a link between safety and jumping clear, and a potential benefit of identifying factors associated with successful cross-country completion is that these may be embraced “more readily by riders”, compared to factors associated with falls.
“We have done a lot of work on things like falls, and we thought it might be nice to look at something a bit more positive. Every competitor wants to ‘succeed’ but most will not necessarily think about ‘how not to fall’, although the two outcomes are closely linked,” he said, adding that similar research has been carried out in endurance and racing.
“We are very confident with the research we’ve done that there is a link between horse welfare, safety, and performance; those three are completely, inextricably linked. So we were trying to maintain that view, and not just focus on ‘here’s what you need to compete’.”
Dr Bennet added that the team believe the findings could feed into MER criteria.
“There’s definitely an influence of current form of horses in this, and we found the same for athletes, and this really has implications for potentially adding some evidence-based decisions into the minimum eligibility requirements,” he said.
“Some of the MERs can be quite restrictive if an event is cancelled due to the weather for example, so there might be an appetite within the industry to change the MER system, and these results here could feed into that. With the various studies we’ve done we’re identifying the areas for risk (such as risk factors for cross-country falls and fence and course-design related risk factors for cross-country falls), but now we’re also identifying areas for success, and that all can feed into a picture that can help secure the sports future in terms of strengthening the social licence.”
An FEI spokesman told H&H that a meeting with the researchers has been agreed for October to discuss the study.
Read the full study
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