What are the chances of Laura Collett winning the European Eventing Championships? Data experts give us the answer…

Laura Collett’s chances of winning individual gold at the Longines FEI European Eventing Championships for Britain have risen from 5% to 9% after her excellent dressage test yesterday on London 52.

So say the data experts at EquiRatings, the equestrian data analytics company set up by the Irish duo of eventing world team silver medallist Sam Watson and his university friend Diarmuid Byrne, who are using their Eventing Prediction Centre model to look at the likely results at the European Championships.

The model offers percentage chances of a combination winning, finishing in the top three or finishing in the top 10 and gives updated figures as the competition progresses.

Eventing Prediction Centre results for individuals at the European Eventing Championships 2019 after first day of dressage

Germany’s Ingrid Klimke is the favourite riding SAP Hale Bob OLD, with a 33% chance of winning — unchanged by yesterday’s dressage results — with her team-mate Michael Jung on FischerChipmunk FRH (currently 17% chance of a win) and Dutchman Tim Lips on Bayro (11%) holding the second and third positions. All three do their dressage today. Laura was fourth favourite before her test yesterday and retains that position, but with an increased percentage chance from 5% to 9%.

Other Brits have decent chances too — Kitty King and Vendredi Biats hold fifth place on the model (currently 6% chance of a win) with Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class sixth (5%). Both Kitty and Oliver have their dressage tests today. Piggy French and Quarrycrest Echo’s ranking has dropped after their slightly disappointing dressage mark — from 4% to 2% chance of individual gold — with Tina Cook steady on 2% ahead of her dressage today with Billy The Red.

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In the team standings, Britain were the favourites to take the team gold (48% chance) before the withdrawal of Tom McEwen and Toledo De Kerser at the start of the week. This hit Team GBR’s chances hard, with Germany becoming the favourites on 49% and Britain dropping to 28%. Sweden hold third position on 7%, with France fourth on 5%.

Check back for more updates from the Eventing European Championships in Luhmühlen all week, plus full report in next week’s Horse & Hound magazine (dated 5 September).