Is there a place on a seriously competitive championship team for a horse who scores 30 in the dressage? And is five-star experience necessary for World Championships and Olympics? These questions come up at every championship – and we can all be wise with hindsight.
Beyond doubt, the British selectors did a super job in picking the five-strong squad for Aachen. They came home with team gold, individual silver and bronze, Olympic qualification, a top-20 result and very useful championship experience for the rider in the individual berth. Yes, one pair was eliminated across country, but across the board, the squad outperformed high expectations.
On the dressage side, Will Coleman scored a 30, finished on it and led the US squad to bronze, finishing fourth individually. It wouldn’t have been the dressage score he wanted, but he proved that such a mark can be competitive individually and not just be part of a medal-winning effort, but spearhead one.
The Brits, in gold, counted one mark above 30. The Germans in silver counted two. All three of those horses started with a dressage score below 30, but added to it.
On this occasion, the cross-country time was influential. This meant horses who were fast – and then who could leave all or nearly all the poles up on Sunday – had a chance to overhaul those with better dressage marks.
Looking back, a mark of 30 would have let a rider place fourth at the 2021 Olympics, eighth at the 2022 worlds and ninth at the 2024 Olympics, if you consider scores after the team round of jumping at Olympics. So recent history suggests it’s always a useful team score.
The trouble with starting on a mark of 30 is that you are only truly competitive if you can finish on it. You have no leeway for error. And while some horses are more reliable than others, no horse is above some time-faults or the odd pole down. Only four horses finished on their dressage score in Aachen.
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So selectors must ask: is the horse with the weaker first phase significantly more likely to finish on that score? And is the better dressage horse likely to add more than the difference in their marks?
No guarantees
On the five-star experience point, look at the chart below. Note, too, that Australia, 12th, fielded three five-star horses and two of them didn’t finish. But it’s no surprise their top performer was the horse without five-star mileage – Vassily De Lassos had previous championship form and the vastly experienced Andrew Hoy as his pilot. As an aside, are all five-stars created equal? Their two fallers’ five-star experience was at Adelaide.
What can we conclude? Probably that five-star experience will up your chances of success, but it’s not a fail-safe guarantee – and if your aim is Olympic qualification rather than medals, useful performances are very possible without it.
Ultimately, the excitement of eventing is that there are so many ways a competition can pan out. The selectors’ unenviable job is to weigh up who is most likely to contribute the overall performance that delivers the lowest score.
(Image credit: Future)
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Pippa is a true eventing geek and has been H&H’s eventing editor since 2005. She has first-hand experience of competing up to British Eventing intermediate and international CCI2*-L level, and has worked in the industry on a top event yard. Pippa enjoys nothing more than immersing herself in the sport at the highest level, reporting from the five-stars and international championships, including the Olympics.
